The Great Unknown

(More blog entries from ryan)

The fine art of weather forecasting.

As I'm sure many of you have, I've been watching the weather forecasts pretty closely over the last couple days to see what tomorrow's storm is going to do. And I've come to one solid conclusion: Nobody has any idea.

Well, sort of...

The fine folks at the Mount Washington Observatory do a great job of giving us the weather forecasts, and 99% of the time, they're dead on. I'm pretty confident that in Pinkham Notch it's going to be snow, and a good solid dose of it. Any mixing seems like a real outside possibility. Hopefully, I'll have a chance tomorrow to get out and get some pics and perhaps another video of the new snow, so you can get a good idea of just what fell from the sky.

I also watch the forecasts for the places that many of you live, which is definitely not Pinkham Notch. A typical forecast sounds like this: "Snow possibly mixing with freezing rain is possible, then possibly changing to all rain with little to a great deal of accumulation possible in some areas...possibly." Now don't get me wrong, meteorology is tough. Even with all the computer models in the world, it's really tough to predict exactly what is going to happen. And overall, I think the meteorologists do a solid job. It's just comical to see them try to pin it down. Not a job I would want. It's a tricky proposition.

The real problem with a storm like this is the classic backyard syndrome. "Well, it rained here, so it must have rained everywhere." This is rarely true. It's especially not true for the microclimate we have here at the base of Mt. Washington. We never know what we're going to get. So, if it does rain at your house, don't despair. We're almost maybe possibly confident it's going to be all snow at here. Like I said, I'll try to get the shots to prove it tomorrow. Until then, get the snow shovels ready as this great winter just keeps on rolling!

- Ryan

Comments